CDC data: Risk of myocarditis for Covid versus the vaccine

Summary: For every case of Covid myocarditis prevented there is 66 cases from the vaccine. And that is all from the CDC data.

5 January 2022

This page is a summary of the work of Jeremy Hammond.

His article on this topic is here. I have summarised his excellent work again here. I recommend subscribing to the work of Jeremy Hammond on his website.

This discussion concerns two papers published by the CDC regarding myocarditis. Neither of the two CDC studies compare the risk of myocarditis from Covid infection with the risk of myocarditis from vaccination.

Paper 1. Association Between COVID-19 and Myocarditis Using Hospital-Based Administrative Data — United States, March 2020–January 202 

This paper compares hospitalisation rates for myocarditis from those with Covid compared to those without Covid infection.

It does not talk about vaccine myocarditis risks.

Covid cases under 16 have 0.133% chance of myocarditis. (However, the higher, overall risk figure is used of 0.146%).  This was converted to the risk, after Covid, of 1/352 children hospitalised with myocarditis after Covid infection. (This is almost twice the rate of 0.146% because that rate included both inpatients and outpatients in the study - whereas we want to find the number of children actually hospitalised).

Paper 2.Use of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine After Reports of Myocarditis Among Vaccine Recipients: Update from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices — United States, June 2021

This paper estimates the risk of post-vaccination myocarditis compared with not vaccinating. It also estimates how many hospitalisations have been prevented by vaccination.

In 12-29 year old's, the risk of myocarditis after vaccination is 40.6 per million (one per 24,634) and the number of hospitalisations prevented was 215 per million.

If we compare the two papers:

 

If hospitalisations prevented in 12-17 year olds is 215 per million, then the number needed to vaccinate to prevent a single child from hospitalisation =4,651

If 1/352 hospitalised children have myocarditis, then the number needed to vaccinate to prevent one case of myocarditis from Covid is 1,637,152

The risk of post-vaccination myocarditis is one per 24,634

Therefore, for every case of Covid myocarditis prevented there is 66 cases from the vaccine. And that is all from the CDC data.