Do Covid vaccines cause death?
16 June 2021
Do Covid vaccines cause death? We can't be sure.
There are no studies using robust data systems that definitively demonstrate the Covid vaccines do not cause death as a rare adverse event.
1. The raw numbers are high.
Figure 1. Red lines: All VAERS death reports. Left, averaged up to 2020. Right, all Covid vaccine death reports till mid June, 2021. Pink line: Extrapolated data till end 2021 year for death reports following Covid vaccination, based on first half year data. Blue line: number of doses given.
At present, 5,888 deaths in America have been reported following vaccination through the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, VAERS, for Covid vaccinations.
VAERS is a passive reporting system limited by reporting bias. Therefore, no claims of causation of death after vaccination can be made (URL,URL).
It is a bit difficult to be biased about reporting death when one is in a coffin. Also, filing a fake report report is illegal and punishable by fine and imprisonment (URL).
However, over-reporting may cause bias. The FDA made it a requirement that all post-vaccine deaths are reported even if there is no indication the vaccine could be involved in the death.
That's good if every death is to be reviewed. But it's not so good if it means it is not possible to detect "safety signals" in the data - which VAERS is supposed to be able to do:
"VAERS is a hypothesis generating system designed to rapidly detect safety signals and rare adverse events so they can be studied in more robust data systems".
Fact checkers reiterated this when Tucker Carlson questioned the VAERS data in comparison with previous years (Fig 1) (URL).
"Tucker Carlson Tonight" on Fox, 5 May 2021 questioning Covid vaccine death reports. The video was removed from youtube for violating Community standards but can be found on other platforms. (Click on the video to be taken to an Odysee link)
2. The CDC says we must not use VAERS data to make inferences.
Carlson rightly points out that when VAERS data is plotted it shows over thirty times more deaths reported to VAERS than any other year in history compared to other vaccines (Fig 1). That's just up till June (NOTE).
Fact checkers comment that "this form of questioning is unfounded" and is a "misinterpretation of data suggesting vaccines are linked to deaths".
There is nothing to see here. Stop questioning.
The CDC assures us that no safety signals have been detected.
Unfortunately, as it stands, no safety signals will ever be able to be detected. The reported deaths will always be regarded as a reflection of the reporting requirement.
If every single death after the Covid vaccine were reported, it would be comparable to "all-cause mortality" (The national mortality rate).
The reported death rate is equal to 17 deaths per million doses. That is 34 deaths per million fully vaccinated people (note).
3. The CDC uses VAERS data to make inferences.
Hypocrisy 1: If VAERS data cannot infer causation, then VAERS data cannot infer safety
Hypocrisy 2: Comparing the death rate with other vaccines is a misrepresentation. But comparing the anaphylaxis rate with other vaccines is not.
Hypocrisy 1: If the CDC says we must not use VAERS to infer causation, then the CDC should not use VAERS to infer safety. Yet this is precisely what they have done.
The CDC's January report (URL) was based on VAERS data. It concludes that "post-authorisation safety profiles for vaccines are reassuring". The reasoning being that the 113 deaths were less than the expected all-cause mortality, which was 7000 for that month.
Using that data to infer safety is nonsense. It is difficult to know how many reports out of 7000 the CDC thought would warrant being considered a safety signal. All 7000 deaths were supposed to be reported anyway. That question wasn't discussed.
The FDA "identify events reported at least twice as frequently as expected" (URL). This is by data mining VAERS to identify disproportional adverse event reporting. However, nowhere does it say how many deaths were expected. No comparisons were made with previous years.
Except for anaphylaxis. Anaphylaxis was compared with that of other vaccines in other years and the rates were similar (URL).
Death reports were not similar and were not compared. Or mentioned.
Hypocrisy 2: Comparing the death rate with other vaccines is a "misrepresentation" (URL). But comparing the anaphylaxis rate with other vaccines is not. The logic for this remains unclear.
Tucker Carlson is looking better all the time.
4. The CDC claims vaccine safety.
The CDC bases its safety claims on the original Pfizer trial (URL). This trial had about 40,000 participants divided into experimental and control groups - too small to detect rare safety signals.
As of yet there is no robust-data, involving enough people to detect rare adverse events.
The CDC does review all death reports by receiving death certificates, medical notes and if available, autopsy reports. The CDC has said that of 5,888 reviews there is no suggestion of any causal relationship. However, Dr. Erik Christensen, Utah's chief Medical Examiner, says proving vaccine injury as a cause of death almost never happens. He said it would be very hard to demonstrate if a vaccine caused death in autopsy (URL). A NZ OIA yielded little information on this.
5. Strongly suggested vaccine-death causation: Dr Jessica Rose
The CDC has no publications about time-sequencing of death following vaccination
Dr Jessica Rose's peer-reviewed published study strongly suggests causality by demonstrating a sharp drop off in reports 24-48 hours after injection (URL). This was done by using VAERS data to plot time sequences of deaths after vaccination. A review of her work said:
"The results are numerous and compelling. Since anaphylaxis is known to be caused by Covid vaccines, Dr. Rose used anaphylaxis as a positive control, finding the same pattern of clustering of events in time in deaths and in many serious adverse events." (URL)
This means it is unlikely that the cluster of deaths immediately after injection is insignificant. If there were no causation, the daily percentage of deaths would be the same every day (see yellow line in figures below).
One limitation is that some deaths maybe more likely to be reported sooner than later after death on account of an association being made by the reporting person. However, the results were so compelling that causation is still strongly suggested. The CDC has no publications about time-sequencing of death following vaccination.
Time series graph for anaphylaxis, used as a positive control. The CDC say rates of anaphylaxis are similar for Covid vaccines and other vaccines.
Graph showing the percentage of deaths following Covid vaccination over time. We see a concentration of deaths in the first 24-48 hours and an increase in the first seven days.
"...there is a possibly that 70 random people in NZ will die due to the vaccination..."
If the strongly suggested causation made by Dr Rose is correct, we can calculate that there is possibly a one in 52,000 chance of death within 7 days of vaccination for a two dose vaccine course.
That would mean that there is a possibility that 70 random people in NZ will die due to the vaccination if all NZ's over 18 were vaccinated.
6. Further studies are planned.
The CDC has initiated a $6 million study, on a global scale, to further asses Covid vaccine efficacy and safety (URL). The results will be available in three years after most people have already been vaccinated.
The sample size will be 300 million people but only a proportion of those will be part of an interventional double blind placebo controlled trial. We don't know yet what proportion that is, however it would need to be significant to detect a statistically significant increase in deaths of around one in 52,000. Hopefully the co-ordinators of the study can calculate the sample size required to detect such a rare serious adverse event.
Whether or not an individual is concerned that the vaccine may have rare serious adverse reactions such as death, is entirely a personal decision to take it. Certainly, we conclude that there is no definitive proof that the vaccine doesn’t cause death even if it is a one in 52,000 chance.
Knowing what we don't know is an important part of the informed consent process. The choice is yours. Please make an informed decision.