Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is different from a Case Fatality Rate. The IFR is determined from all of those who contracted an infection, including those who were asymptomatic and did not develop clinical symptoms.
On the other hand, the Case Fatality Rate measures how many fatalities occur after clinical symptoms are observed. In most cases the media reports on Case Fatality Rates which is why most statistics seen are significantly higher.
Papers and articles on the IFR:
23 December 2021 - pre-print
Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (Stanford University)
Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in community-dwelling populations with emphasis on the elderly: An overview
Cathrine Axfors, John P A Ioannidis
Infection Fatality Rates
0-19 years 0.0013%,
20-29 years 0.0088%,
30-39 years 0.021%,
40-49 years 0.042%,
50-59 years 0.14%,
60-69 years 0.65%
The median IFR in community-dwelling elderly and elderly overall was 2.9% (range 0.2%-6.9%) and 4.9% (range 0.2%-16.8%) without accounting for seroreversion (2.4% and 4.0%, respectively, accounting for 5% monthly seroreversion)
European Journal of Clinical Investigation:
Reconciling estimates of global spread and infection fatality rates of COVID-19: An overview of systematic evaluations
John Ioanndis
Infection Fatality Rate (average) = 0.15%
March 2021
March 2021
Centers for Disease Control
No author attributed
Infection Fatality Rates
0 - 17yo = 0.002 %
18 - 49yo = 0.05 %
50- 64yo = 0.6 %
- 65+ = 9.0 %
May 2020
World Health Organisation:
Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data
Original Link: https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf
Download pdf here
John P A Ioanndis
IFR Corrected median overall = 0.23%
IFR Corrected median for under 70 years = 0.05%
Dec 2020
JAMA Network:
(multiply numbers by 1.5 to get an annualised figure)
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