The Covid vaccine and spontaneous abortion

by Amanda Vickers

June 2021

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Summary:

 

MoH are encouraging pregnant women get vaccinated on account of an observational study based on self-reported data figures. Some of that data was also analysed by an independent scientist who looked at the time sequencing of spontaneous abortions after vaccination. The results were that Covid vaccines are likely to cause spontaneous abortions, with more than half of the abortions occurring within 48 hours of vaccine.

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A Ministry of Health facebook post recently announced that the Covid vaccine is now available for pregnant women. 

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The MoH encourage vaccination in pregnant women claiming the data show no additional safety concerns (emphasis mine).

This is in comparison to information previously on their website up until 24 May, see image below (link)

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The sentence "We don't have enough information from the initial clinical trials on the use of the vaccine in pregnancy or breastfeeding women" has been removed.

(Note, the initial clinical trials specifically excluded pregnant women so there was never going to be enough information there)

 

The removal of the statement indicates a shift in position of the MoH that there is now "enough information from clinical trials on the use of the vaccine in pregnancy". 

That information was requested and this link was provided.

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The paper, however, makes no such claim that there is no additional safety concerns in pregnant women.

 

 In fact, the summary paragraph of the paper says:

Summary paragraph of the paper quoted by the MoH as a basis to encourage pregnant women to get vaccinated:

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The publication is also not a randomised, controlled clinical trial. It is an observational study with data taken from self-reporting systems such as v-safe and VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Events Recording System).

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V-safe data is not available to the public, whereas VAERS is. The CDC have warnings on their sites stressing that self-reporting data are subject to bias and cannot be used to determine causation.  Surely then, it is also cannot determine that there are no additional safety concerns.

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While data from VAERS should always be interpreted with limitations in mind, it is useful to detect signals. 

 

If we are going to make use of the data from VAERS to look for signals, we should consider the data analysis undertaken by Dr Jessica Rose. Her peer-reviewed, pre-print paper uses time sequencing to assess likelihood of causation. Her results indicate that vaccines are likely the cause of spontaneous abortions. A similar analysis has not been conducted by the CDC.

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The graph on the left shows a higher incidence of reported spontaneous abortions 24-48 hours after Covid vaccination. If there were no correlation of Covid vaccine with abortion, we would see a flat line similar to the yellow, expected value line, because the chance of abortion would be the same every day.

 

The heat map on the right also shows the incidence of abortions after Covid vaccination are concentrated on or just after the day of Covid vaccination. If there were no correlation, we would see an even distribution of blue dots in the area left of the diagonal line.

Suffice to say, the safety of Covid vaccines during all trimesters of pregnancy has not been determined as "no additional safety concerns", especially in the first two trimesters. 

Please women, if you're pregnant, consider this information carefully as part of your informed consent process before making a decision about taking the Covid vaccination.